Economic development outlook under great changes and suggestions for traditional enterprises
——Zhao Wei, Professor and Doctoral Advisor, School of Economics, Zhejiang University

Mr. Zhao first elaborated on the Iran conflict and its impacts on the global and Chinese economies. It analyzed the overall strategy, phased objectives and implementation steps of the Trump administration, as well as the extensive and far-reaching repercussions of global oil price volatility.
Subsequently, he assessed the current trajectory of China's economy. In the short term, China's economy has sustained substantial mixed shocks, with positive effects including expanded export opportunities for certain sectors. The medium-to-long term impacts remain uncertain, contingent on the progression of the conflict and the ultimate agreement between the US and Iran. Judging China's economic trend requires examining three sets of indicators: investment, consumption and foreign trade; investment and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); as well as corporate operational data. The economy has staged a mild recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, yet the outlook for 2026 remains unoptimistic.
Finally, he proposed strategic directions for Chinese enterprises. In the short run, enterprises shall prioritize survival, a priority that applies not only to businesses but also to entrepreneurs themselves. In the medium run, they shall align with macroeconomic trends. In the long run, sustainable growth shall rely on innovation.




