For the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is set to increase significantly, with a slight expansion in planting area expected in the following year. Import demand, however, is projected to decline. In China, spinning mill operating rates remain moderately low, and factory inventories are limited, with raw material stocks consistently below average. A sharp rise in replenishment was observed in late March, bringing inventories to relatively high levels compared to historical norms. Mill operations are expected to remain steady, with trader and supply chain inventories also at slightly below-average levels. Overall, global cotton supply and demand for 2024/25 is expected to remain loose.

In 2025, China's PSF production capacity is forecast to exceed 10 million tons, marking a 5.9% increase. Production growth is expected to outpace capacity growth, with utilization rates likely to remain stable or rise slightly compared to the previous year. PSF consumption continues to grow, with annual demand projected to rise around 6%. However, uncertainty around trade policies, particularly from the U.S.–China trade dispute, still poses a potential risk to demand growth. 

Ms. Cheng Sujing concluded with an analysis of the global textile and apparel trade landscape. China's share in global textile exports has increased, while its share in apparel exports has declined. Since 2018, U.S. import demand for textiles and garments has not seen a significant drop-in fact, import volumes have grown compared to 2017. However, the value of imports has not kept pace with volume growth. Although China's export volumes to the U.S. have not shrunk drastically, growth has lagged behind the overall trend, and export values have clearly declined. The U.S. is shifting its sourcing strategy toward ASEAN countries, India, Turkey, and Egypt. However, these regions lag China in terms of scale and supply chain integration. Under the Trump 2.0 administration, the tariff scope and intensity have expanded. On April 2, reciprocal tariffs were announced, affecting nearly all major global textile and apparel suppliers. Although a 90-day tariff suspension was implemented on April 9, policy shifts remain frequent and unpredictable. While short-term tariff relief may lead to a temporary rebound in trade, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. The current U.S. stance on China is unlikely to ease soon, and fluctuations during the policy transition period may continue to disrupt global supply and demand dynamics.