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Cellulose fiber market pattern analysis and future prospect
——Kevin Ding, CCFGroup

2023-05-24 14:53:46

Kevin Ding, CCFGroup, delivered his speech of Cellulose fiber market pattern analysis and future prospect

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Viscose staple fiber market review: Looking back at the historical price fluctuations, the current staple fiber price is below the historical average. In the current complex macro environment, fiber prices have been uncommonly stagnant, lasting for about half a year. The price fluctuation of fibers in the first quarter was 300yuan/mt, which was significantly lower than the historical level for the same period. From January to April, the industry's operating rate and inventory had undergone a significant reverse change, and profits had greatly improved, indicating that the adjustment mechanism was effective. Since the beginning of this century, the production capacity of staple fibers has continued to grow, but it has experienced a decline in recent three years, mainly due to the elimination of some devices and product transitions, while the concentration of production capacity has become higher.


Market analysis: The significant increase of the main raw material dissolving pulp last year had a clear impact on fibers, but this year there is no need to worry too much about the supply issue. The main concern is the big drop in pulp prices and the strong production intention of pulp mills. The price of caustic soda has been fluctuating greatly in the past two years but has now returned to a relatively average level, thus reducing the upstream impact. Downstream spinning capacity, represented by vortex spinning, is still expanding rapidly, and the non-woven fabric industry is also developing. The proportion of blended fabrics is increasing, and raw materials are diversifying. The consumption situation needs to be viewed dialectically by referring to retail and export data.


Market outlook: Based on IMF's economic growth forecasts, along with corresponding models and analysis, global fiber consumption may experience zero growth. There is pressure on the financial aspect of various countries, which will have an impact on corresponding policies. In terms of domestic demand, residents' savings have increased, and consumer willingness has improved, but the actual release is not very optimistic. In terms of external demand, the textile and clothing industry is expected to have a trend of first low and then high. As for competitors, the volatility of cotton, polyester staple fiber, and lyocell are worth paying attention to.


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