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Macro economy forecast for 2021
——Dr. Xiao Lisheng, director of International Financial Office of Research Institute of World Economics and Politics of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

2021-05-26 14:12:25


For a start, Dr. Xiao reviewed capital market in 2020 and found that except for crude oil prices, all asset prices rose sharply. But the the crude oil prices are leading the rise, and the commodity and bond markets have outperformed the stock market in 2021. He also pointed out that the pandemic has regained global attention and the vaccines of China and the United States can play a key role in global pandemic control.

Next, Dr. Xiao analyzed some macroeconomic conditions in China and the United States.

In China:

He thought that the peak of China's economy is expected to appear in the second quarter. SMEs are expected to benefit from the recovery. With low CPI inflation and rise of PPI inflation, overall inflation pressure is not large in China. Since early-2021, the growth rate of downstream inventory is still higher than that in the upstream, which means that there is still room for commodity price increase. In terms of exchange rate, Dr. Xiao believed that there is no so-called medium and long-term upward channel for RMB, but RMB still has small appreciation space.

In US:

Since March, as the account balance of the Ministry of Finance has declined, Banks are flush with liquidity. This has also led to weak demand for the US Treasury Department's net issuance of new debt financing. There is still a big gap between production and demand in the United States; U.S. CPI jumps to 4.2% YoY mainly due to the large rise of commodities, and iron ore increased much more than crude oil.

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