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DWP Market Update
!!Christian Chavassieu, CELCO

2019-05-23 10:39:50
Christian Chavassieu, CELCO, delivers his report of DWP Market Update 
 

Mr. Chavassieu divided his report into four parts. 

Firstly, Mr. Chavassieu introduced China antidumping actions. China anti-dumping action has had little effect to protect China cellulose suppliers. 

Then, Mr. Chavassieu analyzed the evolution of VSF and DWP capacity. The DWP industry continues its vertical integration, up to 43% by 2023. World VSF and DWP capacities will grow in sync till 2021. VSF and DWP capacities of top 3 VSF suppliers have grown in sync but in 2022 onward vertical integration may increase. 

Then, Mr. Chavassieu made a comparison between softwood and hardwood, and eucalyptus and other wood. Rayon Staple is neutral on DWP process but use mostly hardwood. The share of softwood to harwood is declining over time. Eucalyptus wood fibers will account for 55% of total wood fiber basket in 2023. Softwood premium over harwood DWP is dependent on VSF operating rate (VSF Price). 

Lastly, Mr. Chavassieu analyzed DWP supply & demand. World import & domestic DWP were up 3% in 2018 and global import price increased 1.6% over 2017. Significant market capacity increase have been announced. But whether they will materialize on time is yet to be seen. Current world DWP capacity utilization is negatively impacted by swing mills back on DWP and VSF low operating rates. Total DWP demand for the period of 2013-2018 has had an estimated CAGR of 5.3%. 2018 World DWP prices improved by 1.6%, DWP Prices of textile increased 2.7%, acetate declined 5.3% while ether increased 5.7% over 2017. 
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